You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 8 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Malachi Moore (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDJackson Kent 17.8/15.5 · Cristopher Sánchez 27.0/5.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.0 vs 9 typical at Nationals Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.2 · away 18.1
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 173p/3d (b2b 0) · away 201p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Alex McFarlane, Erik Tolman, Jack Sinclair, Jake Irvin
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDJackson Kent 17.8/15.5 · Cristopher Sánchez 27.0/5.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 5 typical at Nationals Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.2 · away 18.1
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The total line has moved +1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Philadelphia Phillies3Washington Nationals6FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 6 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 6 · WON
C Under 8.0 runs · landed 9 · LOST