Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4855415369353499,
"p_shipped": 0.4433145392064814,
"model_mu": 3.9871037939439633,
"market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
"divergence": 0.019046691574525154,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2988,
"contribution": -0.16769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2295,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1813,
"contribution": 0.10177,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1464,
"contribution": 0.08219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0975,
"contribution": 0.05471,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0466,
"contribution": 0.02614,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47767472690619506,
"p_shipped": 0.4582936463764714,
"model_mu": 4.625666314698089,
"market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
"divergence": 0.007237708911336405,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3023,
"contribution": -0.12079,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2541,
"contribution": -0.10153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2057,
"contribution": 0.08219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1726,
"contribution": 0.06896,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0654,
"contribution": 0.02614,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43207008713652845,
"p_shipped": 0.5079246129862721,
"model_mu": 7.34119812517333,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.08463942443159495,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2804,
"contribution": -0.14485,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 12.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2045,
"contribution": -0.10564,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.164,
"contribution": -0.08471,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1451,
"contribution": 0.07496,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1149,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.0912,
"contribution": 0.0471,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4298250922069506,
"p_shipped": 0.4898061615814269,
"model_mu": 8.299345002986378,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.07660164301155853,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2566,
"contribution": -0.11355,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 12.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2387,
"contribution": -0.10564,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.172,
"contribution": -0.07613,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1694,
"contribution": 0.07496,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1634,
"contribution": -0.0723,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]