You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 8 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Adam Beck (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonBraydon Fisher 25.0/20.0 · Drew Anderson 23.2/11.9
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.0 vs 8 typical at Rogers Centre this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.6 · away 23.8
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 227p/3d (b2b 0) · away 211p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Beau Brieske, Brant Hurter, Braydon Fisher, Joe Mantiply
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonBraydon Fisher 25.0/20.0 · Drew Anderson 23.2/11.9
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Rogers Centre this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.6 · away 23.8
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported open before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved -3 since the grade (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +3.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Detroit Tigers10Toronto Blue Jays1FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 5 · LOST
C Over 8.0 runs · landed 11 · WON