Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4623923170097801,
"p_shipped": 0.47609170788051147,
"model_mu": 3.6814598379576196,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.03760768299021988,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.4559,
"contribution": -0.0858,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1898,
"contribution": -0.03571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1786,
"contribution": -0.03362,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.1226,
"contribution": 0.02307,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0532,
"contribution": 0.01001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49902183686989937,
"p_shipped": 0.5029638687324484,
"model_mu": 4.822340799084642,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.020358008091340973,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.507,
"contribution": 0.17144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1987,
"contribution": -0.06718,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1591,
"contribution": -0.05381,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1056,
"contribution": -0.03571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0296,
"contribution": 0.01001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.56234921945403,
"p_shipped": 0.4798572746538569,
"model_mu": 7.944451895183907,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": 0.07656110575893965,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.3819,
"contribution": 0.18435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2351,
"contribution": 0.11351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1809,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1075,
"contribution": -0.05189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0946,
"contribution": -0.04569,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5972219671175834,
"p_shipped": 0.4939950842190636,
"model_mu": 8.995670004067168,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": 0.07794176146205645,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.3525,
"contribution": 0.18435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2171,
"contribution": 0.11351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.167,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.1642,
"contribution": 0.08585,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0992,
"contribution": -0.05189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
}
]