You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 7 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Scott Barry (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDDylan Cease 35.2/10.4 · Trevor Rogers 21.9/5.9
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 7.0 vs 8 typical at Rogers Centre this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.5 · away 25.6
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 181p/3d (b2b 1) · away 164p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Alex Hoppe, Andrew Kittredge, Anthony Nunez, Braydon Fisher
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDDylan Cease 35.2/10.4 · Trevor Rogers 21.9/5.9
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 3.5 vs 4.5 typical at Rogers Centre this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.5 · away 25.6
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported open before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved -1 since the grade (anchor 3.5).
The total line has moved +2.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 7).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Baltimore Orioles1Toronto Blue Jays8FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — | 8 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 3.5 · landed 5 · WON
C Over 7.0 runs · landed 9 · WON