Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47046646635225714,
"p_shipped": 0.4510903550339979,
"model_mu": 3.4199582095291126,
"market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
"divergence": 0.005170836532205736,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2315,
"contribution": -0.07919,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 33.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2118,
"contribution": -0.07245,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2107,
"contribution": -0.07208,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1905,
"contribution": 0.06515,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1555,
"contribution": -0.05317,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5711803264965298,
"p_shipped": 0.5214837839943197,
"model_mu": 4.3563862990093405,
"market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
"divergence": 0.045407130620241154,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.3812,
"contribution": 0.15048,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 33.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1835,
"contribution": -0.07245,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1651,
"contribution": 0.06515,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.1355,
"contribution": 0.05348,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1347,
"contribution": -0.05317,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5465758975554311,
"p_shipped": 0.4911953726790334,
"model_mu": 7.130938653918672,
"market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
"divergence": 0.07478102576055934,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.3895,
"contribution": 0.15219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1849,
"contribution": -0.07225,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1534,
"contribution": -0.05992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1533,
"contribution": 0.0599,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1188,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.581160883432093,
"p_shipped": 0.5218059328378797,
"model_mu": 8.278736791324416,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": 0.06188067777656614,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.3513,
"contribution": 0.21817,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.245,
"contribution": 0.15219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1163,
"contribution": -0.07225,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1161,
"contribution": -0.07212,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.0965,
"contribution": -0.05992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.0748,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]