SPOTTER.
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You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

Thu 9/17 · 7:05 PM CDT · Globe Life Field
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 7 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Nick Mahrley (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE
Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: TRUE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED
MacKenzie Gore 24.4/9.4 · Jake Bennett 19.9/4.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICED
tonight's line 4.0 vs 4 typical at Globe Life Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED
home 22.9 · away 21.4
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved +0.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +2.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
BOS
3
TOP 9 · 3 OUT
B S OUT
updated 2026-09-17T02:51:25Z ·
TEX
7
AT BAT
Caleb Durbin
season line pending
PITCHING
Nathan Eovaldi
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
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BOS2000100003
TEX10011031—7
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Boston Red Sox3Texas Rangers7FINAL
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BOS2000100003
TEX10011031—7
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 6 · WON
no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 10 · WON
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% over · market 50%
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 53%