Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5881010515952575,
"p_shipped": 0.5413892322146571,
"model_mu": 4.013047930303346,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": 0.054595896956082246,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3621,
"contribution": 0.13232,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .575 club right now",
"share": 0.1907,
"contribution": 0.06968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.159,
"contribution": -0.0581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1498,
"contribution": 0.05473,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1384,
"contribution": 0.05059,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.599568244318268,
"p_shipped": 0.5464820054431068,
"model_mu": 5.077700068023824,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": 0.0660630896790928,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3324,
"contribution": 0.13232,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team has the lefty-righty edge in the lineup",
"share": 0.2181,
"contribution": 0.08681,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .575 club right now",
"share": 0.175,
"contribution": 0.06968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1459,
"contribution": -0.0581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1286,
"contribution": 0.05118,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49207010535207046,
"p_shipped": 0.4963813936708609,
"model_mu": 7.318267131066791,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.007929894647929536,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.2956,
"contribution": -0.07322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.2119,
"contribution": 0.05249,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2039,
"contribution": 0.0505,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1504,
"contribution": 0.03725,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1381,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5188837521317831,
"p_shipped": 0.5000985078833854,
"model_mu": 8.868403546181405,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": 0.016306432544154092,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.2477,
"contribution": -0.07322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2132,
"contribution": 0.06303,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1907,
"contribution": 0.05637,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1776,
"contribution": 0.05249,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1708,
"contribution": 0.0505,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]