C-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 7 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Lance Barksdale (confirmed).
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.
Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 90→86.2°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.
The f5_total line has moved -2.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved -1.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.