Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4516490417241049,
"p_shipped": 0.4848092642547945,
"model_mu": 3.4703990593388916,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": -0.04189100995548167,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.5492,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1433,
"contribution": -0.06577,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.1122,
"contribution": 0.05147,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.1103,
"contribution": -0.05063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0793,
"contribution": 0.0364,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0057,
"contribution": 0.00263,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T23:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5716061358153754,
"p_shipped": 0.5134175351459833,
"model_mu": 4.842414867520945,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": 0.07031414615129272,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T23:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.5417,
"contribution": 0.22448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.1242,
"contribution": 0.05147,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1239,
"contribution": 0.05136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.1222,
"contribution": -0.05063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.088,
"contribution": -0.03648,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4143303135128815,
"p_shipped": 0.4841659694096886,
"model_mu": 6.607985069809521,
"market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
"divergence": -0.0715308690063986,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3526,
"contribution": -0.17251,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 5.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2091,
"contribution": 0.10228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1213,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1123,
"contribution": -0.05493,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1084,
"contribution": -0.05302,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0963,
"contribution": -0.04711,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T23:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5006667105419093,
"p_shipped": 0.4858334925632747,
"model_mu": 8.423629624443217,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": 0.018615428490627195,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T23:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.363,
"contribution": 0.20921,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2631,
"contribution": -0.15166,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 5.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1774,
"contribution": 0.10228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1012,
"contribution": 0.05832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0953,
"contribution": -0.05493,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]