You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 2 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Jeremie Rehak (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDFreddy Peralta 21.3/8.5 · Brayan Bello 14.0/11.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4 typical at Tropicana Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.1 · away 20.1
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 88.7→90.2°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.
The f5_total line has moved -1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved -4 since the grade (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Boston Red Sox1Tampa Bay Rays2FINAL
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed — · PENDING — SETTLES ON THE NEXT GRADES PASS
no lean Under 7.5 runs · landed 3 · PENDING — SETTLES ON THE NEXT GRADES PASS