Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5388095638945735,
"p_shipped": 0.5232227660438273,
"model_mu": 4.913190254300453,
"market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
"divergence": 0.011677780948837091,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2821,
"contribution": 0.09246,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.194,
"contribution": -0.06358,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_dome",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1818,
"contribution": 0.05956,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1648,
"contribution": 0.05401,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1445,
"contribution": -0.04734,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0328,
"contribution": -0.01076,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5370524598843546,
"p_shipped": 0.5140490652101818,
"model_mu": 5.036070481544293,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.015088635594948885,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3991,
"contribution": 0.12367,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2052,
"contribution": -0.06358,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_dome",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1922,
"contribution": 0.05956,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1528,
"contribution": -0.04734,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.0508,
"contribution": 0.01574,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48923968979556093,
"p_shipped": 0.4947203357797335,
"model_mu": 7.66690642926294,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": 0.0034515761004705325,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.3601,
"contribution": 0.20922,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.3096,
"contribution": -0.17988,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1315,
"contribution": 0.07639,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.107,
"contribution": -0.06219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.0917,
"contribution": -0.05327,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45181658488582316,
"p_shipped": 0.4856676833966058,
"model_mu": 7.792146097731653,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.03147390354605356,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.2949,
"contribution": 0.20922,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.2535,
"contribution": -0.17988,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2222,
"contribution": -0.15765,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1417,
"contribution": 0.10053,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.0877,
"contribution": -0.06219,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
}
]