You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
PRE-GAME LIVE FINAL
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays Sun 9/13 · 12:40 PM CDT · Tropicana Field
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 3 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Bruce Dreckman (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB% PRICED Freddy Peralta 21.3/8.2 · Hayden Wesneski 20.0/7.8
MARKET ANCHOR PRICED tonight's line 4.0 vs 4 typical at Tropicana Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30) PRICED home 16.0 · away 23.3
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +4.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +10.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
— OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
—
season line pending
PITCHING
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no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
Houston Astros 4 Tampa Bay Rays 14 FINAL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R HOU 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 4 TB 3 0 4 2 2 0 3 0 — 14
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 11 · WON
no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 18 · WON
TOTAL
no lean
model 48% over · market 48%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 54% over · market 53%
Model fit 2021–2025 (leave-one-season-out) · grades logged before first pitch — the prospective record is the credential · no grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.