SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 12:40 PM CDT

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

Sun 9/13 · 12:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 54% over · market 53%
TOTAL
no lean
model 48% over · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 3-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team30%
Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team23%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team20%
Day gameagainst the over14%
Backup catcher startingagainst the over13%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -120 (pinnacle, quoted 11:30 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it -116 · model expects ~5.2 runs · divergence 3 points — band none.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5475397281831078,
  "p_shipped": 0.4959150518459922,
  "model_mu": 4.8999421526018265,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": 0.05916763515985202,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2829,
    "contribution": 0.13241,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2632,
    "contribution": 0.1232,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1935,
    "contribution": 0.09058,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1363,
    "contribution": -0.0638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1241,
    "contribution": -0.0581,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5534909951297161,
  "p_shipped": 0.5380505896614192,
  "model_mu": 5.233212536033973,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": 0.025140479665798576,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2952,
    "contribution": 0.13241,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2277,
    "contribution": 0.10215,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2019,
    "contribution": 0.09058,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1422,
    "contribution": -0.0638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.133,
    "contribution": -0.05964,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5168702069178572,
  "p_shipped": 0.48923489226737993,
  "model_mu": 7.599194237855033,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": 0.028438330311173377,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3886,
    "contribution": -0.25709,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.319,
    "contribution": 0.21104,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1342,
    "contribution": 0.08878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0868,
    "contribution": 0.05741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0713,
    "contribution": 0.04717,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5042551609542305,
  "p_shipped": 0.4765237203877626,
  "model_mu": 8.505303925035168,
  "market_p": 0.47948717948717956,
  "divergence": 0.024767981467050948,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3718,
    "contribution": -0.25709,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.3052,
    "contribution": 0.21104,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1284,
    "contribution": 0.08878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1116,
    "contribution": -0.07717,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.083,
    "contribution": 0.05741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]