You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Mark Wegner (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonMatthew Liberatore 23.2/8.3 · Anthony Molina 27.1/5.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.0 vs 8 typical at Busch Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 21.8 · away 23.8
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 188p/3d (b2b 0) · away 145p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Brycen Mautz, Cade Winquest, Carson Seymour, Dylan Smith
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonMatthew Liberatore 23.2/8.3 · Anthony Molina 27.1/5.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Busch Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 21.8 · away 23.8
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 87.4→90°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +3.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
San Francisco Giants6St. Louis Cardinals5FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 1 · LOST
C Over 8.0 runs · landed 11 · WON