San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Wed 9/16 · 12:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 51%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Walk-prone umpire zone29%

87°F — heat carries the ball28%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travelagainst the over20%

Recent call-ups in both lineups14%

The away starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the over9%

Market: Over 8.0 runs at -111 (pinnacle, quoted 11:00 AM CDT) · model expects ~9.2 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

anchor Over 8.0 runs -111 → closed -114 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5500322003553004,
  "p_shipped": 0.5105580561952131,
  "model_mu": 4.409172005522528,
  "market_p": 0.5012987012987012,
  "divergence": 0.04873349905659918,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4846,
    "contribution": 0.13144,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1619,
    "contribution": 0.04392,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1329,
    "contribution": 0.03604,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.1309,
    "contribution": 0.03549,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0816,
    "contribution": -0.02212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0082,
    "contribution": 0.00221,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5191306281694167,
  "p_shipped": 0.5058819227874446,
  "model_mu": 4.879707979181829,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": 0.0204226178334993,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3873,
    "contribution": 0.06741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.204,
    "contribution": 0.03549,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
    "share": 0.1912,
    "contribution": 0.03327,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1271,
    "contribution": -0.02212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0777,
    "contribution": -0.01352,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0127,
    "contribution": 0.00221,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5772319571632525,
  "p_shipped": 0.5017151848707347,
  "model_mu": 8.278320593974927,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": 0.07077200884283907,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3214,
    "contribution": 0.21171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2781,
    "contribution": 0.18318,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1854,
    "contribution": -0.12214,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1326,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.0825,
    "contribution": -0.05438,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5692802002165035,
  "p_shipped": 0.5047743211308753,
  "model_mu": 9.156621361135695,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": 0.05771207682318724,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2934,
    "contribution": 0.18318,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2841,
    "contribution": 0.17737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1956,
    "contribution": -0.12214,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1399,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.0871,
    "contribution": -0.05438,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]