You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Carlos Torres (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDQuinn Mathews 20.4/10.2 · Landen Roupp 21.8/11.3
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.0 vs 8.5 typical at Busch Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 22.1 · away 23.0
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 263p/3d (b2b 1) · away 208p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Carson Seymour, Cooper Hjerpe, Dylan Smith, George Soriano
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDQuinn Mathews 20.4/10.2 · Landen Roupp 21.8/11.3
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Busch Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 22.1 · away 23.0
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -3.5 since the grade (anchor 4).
The total line has moved -4.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
San Francisco Giants1St. Louis Cardinals2FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 2 · LOST
C Over 8.0 runs · landed 3 · LOST