SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
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SF 1 · STL 2 — how the graded markets landed
FINAL

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Mon 9/14 · 6:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% over · market 48%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 53% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team25%
Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most24%
Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over23%
Recent call-ups in both lineups17%
Game-time temperature 82°F11%
Market: Over 8.0 runs at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.2 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.
anchor Over 8.0 runs +100 → closed -108 · our way
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5273588353435864,
  "p_shipped": 0.5322836836663057,
  "model_mu": 3.9746428830338023,
  "market_p": 0.5324675324675325,
  "divergence": -0.0051086971239461265,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "betonlineag",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.4141,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.3201,
    "contribution": 0.09957,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1119,
    "contribution": 0.03479,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1005,
    "contribution": 0.03127,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0291,
    "contribution": 0.00906,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0243,
    "contribution": -0.00755,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5572432402013607,
  "p_shipped": 0.5285558930665019,
  "model_mu": 4.938162720091702,
  "market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
  "divergence": 0.03527941591195505,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.5435,
    "contribution": 0.10527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": 0.03933,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1615,
    "contribution": 0.03127,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.053,
    "contribution": -0.01026,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.039,
    "contribution": -0.00755,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5163325565724667,
  "p_shipped": 0.5214705395449306,
  "model_mu": 7.7012777803703925,
  "market_p": 0.5157068062827225,
  "divergence": 0.0006257502897442091,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "betonlineag",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2586,
    "contribution": 0.1281,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2429,
    "contribution": -0.12033,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1763,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1198,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1122,
    "contribution": 0.05559,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0901,
    "contribution": -0.04463,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5479030019953841,
  "p_shipped": 0.5025825999454366,
  "model_mu": 9.248113099162964,
  "market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
  "divergence": 0.0633669195211573,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2485,
    "contribution": 0.1281,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2352,
    "contribution": 0.12125,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2334,
    "contribution": -0.12033,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1694,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1135,
    "contribution": 0.0585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]