Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5273588353435864,
"p_shipped": 0.5322836836663057,
"model_mu": 3.9746428830338023,
"market_p": 0.5324675324675325,
"divergence": -0.0051086971239461265,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.4141,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.3201,
"contribution": 0.09957,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1119,
"contribution": 0.03479,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1005,
"contribution": 0.03127,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0291,
"contribution": 0.00906,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0243,
"contribution": -0.00755,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5572432402013607,
"p_shipped": 0.5285558930665019,
"model_mu": 4.938162720091702,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.03527941591195505,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.5435,
"contribution": 0.10527,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.2031,
"contribution": 0.03933,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1615,
"contribution": 0.03127,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.053,
"contribution": -0.01026,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.039,
"contribution": -0.00755,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5163325565724667,
"p_shipped": 0.5214705395449306,
"model_mu": 7.7012777803703925,
"market_p": 0.5157068062827225,
"divergence": 0.0006257502897442091,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2586,
"contribution": 0.1281,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2429,
"contribution": -0.12033,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1763,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1198,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1122,
"contribution": 0.05559,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0901,
"contribution": -0.04463,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5479030019953841,
"p_shipped": 0.5025825999454366,
"model_mu": 9.248113099162964,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": 0.0633669195211573,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2485,
"contribution": 0.1281,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2352,
"contribution": 0.12125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2334,
"contribution": -0.12033,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1694,
"contribution": 0.08733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1135,
"contribution": 0.0585,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
}
]