San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Tue 9/15 · 6:45 PM CDT · Busch Stadium

THE EDGE

C-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 8 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Jacob Metz (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Andre Pallante 16.9/7.5 · Blade Tidwell 18.7/11.3

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Busch Stadium this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 21.9 · away 23.3

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.

Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 91.9→87.5°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.

The f5_total line has moved +6 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).

The total line has moved +5.5 since the grade (anchor 8).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.

BOT 9 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-16T02:42:24Z ·

STL

AT BAT

Victor Scott II

season line pending

PITCHING

Dylan Smith

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	3	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	10
STL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

San Francisco Giants10St. Louis Cardinals3FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	3	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	10
STL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

C First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 10 · WON

B Over 8.0 runs · landed 13 · WON

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 49% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%