San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Tue 9/15 · 6:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 49% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team28%

92°F — heat carries the ball27%

Recent call-ups in both lineups19%

Umpire leans over15%

The away starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the over10%

Market: Over 8.0 runs at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.3 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +100 → closed +100 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -103 → closed -102 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenLow-scoring umpireStarter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5417806267188201,
  "model_mu": 4.478609589386112,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": 0.0219573784424697,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4151,
    "contribution": 0.11745,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2451,
    "contribution": 0.06936,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1557,
    "contribution": 0.04405,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0872,
    "contribution": 0.02467,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0608,
    "contribution": -0.01722,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0361,
    "contribution": -0.01022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5638249549693759,
  "p_shipped": 0.4956192818449979,
  "model_mu": 5.338851476541751,
  "market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
  "divergence": 0.0792888724951491,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.5646,
    "contribution": 0.1907,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2054,
    "contribution": 0.06936,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1304,
    "contribution": 0.04405,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.051,
    "contribution": -0.01722,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0303,
    "contribution": -0.01022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0184,
    "contribution": 0.00621,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5725373545256741,
  "p_shipped": 0.49195082858202843,
  "model_mu": 8.529658686580412,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": 0.08410547791899026,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3157,
    "contribution": 0.1281,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2153,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1926,
    "contribution": 0.07814,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1711,
    "contribution": 0.06941,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1053,
    "contribution": -0.04274,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5894874505055401,
  "p_shipped": 0.4876658483853669,
  "model_mu": 9.327259537746444,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.09591418572404908,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2849,
    "contribution": 0.1281,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2715,
    "contribution": 0.12208,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1942,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1544,
    "contribution": 0.06941,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.095,
    "contribution": -0.04274,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]