You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 7.5 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 11 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Junior Valentine (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonLogan Webb 19.7/6.2 · Nick Pivetta 31.3/7.2
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 7.5 vs 8 typical at Oracle Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.0 · away 20.1
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 166p/3d (b2b 0) · away 111p/3d (b2b 3) · recent arms: Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Carson Seymour, Dylan Smith
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonLogan Webb 19.7/6.2 · Nick Pivetta 31.3/7.2
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Oracle Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.0 · away 20.1
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +5.5 since the grade (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +3 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
San Diego Padres6San Francisco Giants4FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SD | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
|---|
| SF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 9 · WON
B Over 7.5 runs · landed 10 · WON