San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Sun 9/13 · 6:20 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 50% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% over · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Day game27%

The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over25%

The away team throws out base stealersagainst the over20%

The away team's defense leaking extra outs15%

The away starter has thrown 63 pitches over 30 daysagainst the over13%

Market: Over 7.5 runs at -105 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.4 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Over 7.5 runs -105 → closed +103 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Wind blowing outBullpen arms used two straight daysCatcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)Starter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5482709875799401,
  "p_shipped": 0.46501562811898906,
  "model_mu": 4.039426730656028,
  "market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
  "divergence": 0.08297535775988868,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3295,
    "contribution": -0.1466,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~15 mph net",
    "share": 0.2487,
    "contribution": 0.11062,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1804,
    "contribution": 0.08027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1648,
    "contribution": 0.07332,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0766,
    "contribution": 0.03408,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T22:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5320059971219449,
  "p_shipped": 0.5072843255979913,
  "model_mu": 4.627276709977529,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": 0.02554604880153144,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T22:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3192,
    "contribution": -0.1466,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~14 mph net",
    "share": 0.22,
    "contribution": 0.10104,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1748,
    "contribution": 0.08027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1188,
    "contribution": -0.05456,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0931,
    "contribution": 0.04278,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0742,
    "contribution": 0.03408,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.612121564771589,
  "p_shipped": 0.49483613888281297,
  "model_mu": 7.590953004205964,
  "market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
  "divergence": 0.1300702827203069,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~15 mph net",
    "share": 0.2857,
    "contribution": 0.16871,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2601,
    "contribution": 0.15359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1715,
    "contribution": -0.1013,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense leaking extra outs",
    "share": 0.1515,
    "contribution": 0.08948,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter has thrown 63 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1312,
    "contribution": -0.07748,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T22:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6036067542218699,
  "p_shipped": 0.4966774837235889,
  "model_mu": 8.367507135771769,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": 0.10618407380949874,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T22:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2717,
    "contribution": 0.16534,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2524,
    "contribution": 0.15359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.2014,
    "contribution": -0.12256,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense leaking extra outs",
    "share": 0.1471,
    "contribution": 0.08948,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter has thrown 63 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1273,
    "contribution": -0.07748,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]