Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

Wed 9/9 · 8:40 PM CDT · Petco Park

THE EDGE

C-grade Under 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 8 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Doug Eddings (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

K-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this season

Casey Mize 21.6/6.0 · Riley Cornelio —/—

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 8.0 vs 8 typical at Petco Park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 20.5 · away 23.4

CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

K-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this season

Casey Mize 21.6/6.0 · Riley Cornelio —/—

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Petco Park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 20.5 · away 23.4

F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -6.2% (n=446) vs 8.8% (n=358) in the favorable branch.

Conditions have changed since the grade (wind component -11→-3 mph) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.

The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade (anchor 4.5).

The total line has moved +1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 8).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction. Getting in before the line moves is the point.

WSH

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· — OUT

B S OUT

updated — ·

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AT BAT

—

season line pending

PITCHING

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no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).

Washington Nationals4San Diego Padres5FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	4
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	—	5

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 1 · LOST

C Under 8.0 runs · landed 9 · LOST

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 48%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 47% over · market 47%