Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5156047433976408,
"p_shipped": 0.4961233252866499,
"model_mu": 4.38707822055619,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.01948071238988891,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.3059,
"contribution": -0.14582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1994,
"contribution": 0.09503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.184,
"contribution": 0.08772,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1824,
"contribution": 0.08692,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1283,
"contribution": -0.06113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48197488019348045,
"p_shipped": 0.47030690956528726,
"model_mu": 4.920872024745049,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": 0.010325395657397873,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.371,
"contribution": -0.14582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2252,
"contribution": 0.08849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1555,
"contribution": -0.06113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1505,
"contribution": 0.05915,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0659,
"contribution": 0.0259,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.0319,
"contribution": -0.01254,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4482284219512314,
"p_shipped": 0.5001862438356395,
"model_mu": 6.94067276858121,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": -0.04534484283025958,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2761,
"contribution": -0.15719,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.23,
"contribution": -0.13093,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1881,
"contribution": 0.10711,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1551,
"contribution": -0.08833,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1507,
"contribution": 0.08582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4382820881430615,
"p_shipped": 0.5082161838141559,
"model_mu": 7.471514461112108,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": -0.08099811751246538,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2947,
"contribution": -0.15719,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2455,
"contribution": -0.13093,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2008,
"contribution": 0.10711,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1656,
"contribution": -0.08833,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0934,
"contribution": 0.04982,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]