You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Mon 9/7 · 4:10 PM CDT · Petco Park
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Under 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 4 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Gabe Morales (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEHeat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: TRUE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonNick Pivetta 36.4/9.1 · Jake Irvin 22.9/10.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Petco Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 20.4 · away 23.2
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -0.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved -2.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
· — OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
—
season line pending
PITCHING
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no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
Washington Nationals2San Diego Padres3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 3 · WON
no lean Under 8.0 runs · landed 5 · WON
TOTAL
no lean
model 51% under · market 49%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 53% under · market 53%