Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4350144865753591,
"p_shipped": 0.4970543841720858,
"model_mu": 4.289197044707945,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": -0.07144546174505428,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.3364,
"contribution": -0.19975,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_return_vet"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2169,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1452,
"contribution": 0.08619,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1448,
"contribution": -0.08595,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": 0.0838,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.0156,
"contribution": 0.00926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T20:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43402654776178123,
"p_shipped": 0.4735000325081982,
"model_mu": 4.954904243801986,
"market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
"divergence": -0.03641047023307742,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T20:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.4154,
"contribution": -0.19975,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_return_vet"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1904,
"contribution": -0.09157,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1788,
"contribution": -0.08595,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1409,
"contribution": 0.06773,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "100\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.0745,
"contribution": 0.03582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5191918272471234,
"p_shipped": 0.49972528118965975,
"model_mu": 8.605442637714244,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.015335786116017935,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3011,
"contribution": 0.18657,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.198,
"contribution": -0.12273,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1795,
"contribution": -0.11122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1304,
"contribution": 0.08083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0958,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0952,
"contribution": 0.05902,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T20:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5037824091627447,
"p_shipped": 0.49389886918917486,
"model_mu": 9.534585086103204,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.0026443260557643677,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T20:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "100\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3273,
"contribution": 0.20936,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1919,
"contribution": -0.12273,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1805,
"contribution": -0.11547,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1739,
"contribution": -0.11122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1264,
"contribution": 0.08083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
}
]
}
]