You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 3.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 7 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire John Libka (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonLake Bachar 29.6/13.6 · Jacob Misiorowski 38.3/6.7
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 3.5 vs 4.5 typical at PNC Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.1 · away 21.9
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 3.5).
The total line has moved -1 since the grade (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Milwaukee Brewers5Pittsburgh Pirates1FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Under 3.5 · landed 1 · WON
no lean Under 7.5 runs · landed 6 · WON