Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tue 9/15 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 3.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 49%

TOTAL

no lean

model 51% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.52%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team32%

Park & environment leans overagainst the under13%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under3%

How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league1%

Market: First-5-innings Under 3.5 at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~3.6 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned A; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Under 3.5 -103 → closed -105 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

none detected for this game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.39598429987297024,
  "p_shipped": 0.5077377870636407,
  "model_mu": 2.960288530971733,
  "market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
  "divergence": -0.13114748307276614,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.4532,
    "contribution": -0.31885,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2777,
    "contribution": -0.19538,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1831,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0732,
    "contribution": 0.05149,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0069,
    "contribution": 0.00487,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0059,
    "contribution": -0.00413,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43613495342554603,
  "p_shipped": 0.5064610202529121,
  "model_mu": 3.637125460676386,
  "market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
  "divergence": -0.07290897422303272,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.5177,
    "contribution": -0.31885,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3173,
    "contribution": -0.19538,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1262,
    "contribution": 0.07775,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0317,
    "contribution": 0.01952,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.007,
    "contribution": -0.00434,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44412516031972404,
  "p_shipped": 0.4964881042986544,
  "model_mu": 6.896782461522887,
  "market_p": 0.502577319587629,
  "divergence": -0.058452159267904924,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4069,
    "contribution": -0.25839,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.256,
    "contribution": 0.16258,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1589,
    "contribution": -0.10088,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0935,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.0539,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0308,
    "contribution": 0.01955,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4706423836043931,
  "p_shipped": 0.4913582946046766,
  "model_mu": 7.857184410052454,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": -0.017789493002290768,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4488,
    "contribution": -0.25839,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.2824,
    "contribution": 0.16258,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1486,
    "contribution": -0.08556,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 77\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.0608,
    "contribution": 0.03501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.0594,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]