You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 4 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Ramon De Jesus (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDNolan McLean 26.5/9.5 · Aaron Nola 23.9/8.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Citi Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 21.4 · away 17.9
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -3 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved -4.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Philadelphia Phillies3New York Mets0FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 1 · LOST
no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 3 · LOST