Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4929520819033825,
"p_shipped": 0.48054040114464525,
"model_mu": 4.179815107962745,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.007047918096617478,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2957,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2211,
"contribution": 0.09629,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 25.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2066,
"contribution": -0.09,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1333,
"contribution": 0.05805,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0839,
"contribution": 0.03656,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0594,
"contribution": 0.02587,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5341264204866274,
"p_shipped": 0.5083300877684435,
"model_mu": 5.176238261803358,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.038002389478875465,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
"share": 0.3544,
"contribution": 0.1513,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 25.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2108,
"contribution": -0.09,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1723,
"contribution": 0.07356,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1034,
"contribution": 0.04415,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0984,
"contribution": -0.042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0606,
"contribution": 0.02587,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5074211776539562,
"p_shipped": 0.5090029372784896,
"model_mu": 7.762494318847824,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": -0.008042739871816917,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.2125,
"contribution": -0.0671,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.193,
"contribution": 0.06093,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.188,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1572,
"contribution": 0.04965,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.141,
"contribution": 0.04453,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1083,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5445541456869373,
"p_shipped": 0.499841141956263,
"model_mu": 8.894288754232589,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": 0.02660542773821928,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2352,
"contribution": 0.0809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2265,
"contribution": 0.0779,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.195,
"contribution": -0.0671,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1294,
"contribution": 0.04453,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1144,
"contribution": 0.03936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0995,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]