You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Mark Ripperger (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDSean Manaea 20.8/6.2 · Shane Baz 20.8/8.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.25 typical at Citi Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 21.8 · away 26.3
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +1 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +4.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Baltimore Orioles7New York Mets5FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R |
|---|
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
|---|
| NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 5 · WON
no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 12 · WON