Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

Tue 9/15 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 50%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% over · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games34%

The home starter fades the third time through the order34%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikesagainst the over15%

Park & environment leans over14%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team3%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.4 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

none detected for this game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5693094662754485,
  "p_shipped": 0.5031985684533634,
  "model_mu": 4.628071734997163,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": 0.07060145593953115,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.3393,
    "contribution": 0.14254,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3065,
    "contribution": 0.12878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1532,
    "contribution": -0.06436,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.14,
    "contribution": 0.05881,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0611,
    "contribution": 0.02565,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5647454073074077,
  "p_shipped": 0.5045614658784005,
  "model_mu": 5.432506711379178,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.06474540730740774,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3402,
    "contribution": 0.1443,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter fades the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.3361,
    "contribution": 0.14254,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1517,
    "contribution": -0.06436,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1395,
    "contribution": 0.05916,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0325,
    "contribution": 0.01379,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5250360884643239,
  "p_shipped": 0.5043415841879627,
  "model_mu": 7.843105316638931,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.025036088464323925,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2618,
    "contribution": -0.06325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.233,
    "contribution": 0.0563,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.2191,
    "contribution": 0.05294,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1445,
    "contribution": 0.03493,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.1416,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5233040914677465,
  "p_shipped": 0.5023630492014683,
  "model_mu": 8.833050238580633,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": 0.01430666216183385,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2488,
    "contribution": -0.06325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2214,
    "contribution": 0.0563,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.2082,
    "contribution": 0.05294,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1843,
    "contribution": 0.04685,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1374,
    "contribution": 0.03493,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]