Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

Mon 9/14 · 6:10 PM CDT · Citi Field

THE EDGE

B-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 10 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Dan Bellino (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this season

Jonah Tong 33.3/4.8 · Brandon Young 18.5/8.3

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.5 vs 4 typical at Citi Field this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 21.6 · away 26.1

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

The f5_total line has moved -3 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4.5).

The total line has moved -3.5 since the grade (anchor 8).

Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.

BAL

BOT 9 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-15T01:59:24Z ·

NYM

AT BAT

Francisco Lindor

season line pending

PITCHING

Rico Garcia

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Baltimore Orioles2New York Mets1FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

B First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 2 · LOST

no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 3 · LOST

TOTAL

no lean

model 51% over · market 52%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 48%