Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5063848997096357,
"p_shipped": 0.46097528025422246,
"model_mu": 4.138427389491448,
"market_p": 0.4739583333333334,
"divergence": 0.03242656637630231,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2831,
"contribution": 0.12907,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2825,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 87 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2103,
"contribution": 0.0959,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.1608,
"contribution": -0.07332,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0563,
"contribution": 0.02565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.007,
"contribution": 0.0032,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"h_rs30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5800393474466308,
"p_shipped": 0.48442132699762075,
"model_mu": 5.306864162637273,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.099419192407871,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3228,
"contribution": 0.14286,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2933,
"contribution": 0.1298,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 87 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2167,
"contribution": 0.0959,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.1091,
"contribution": -0.0483,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.058,
"contribution": 0.02565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5145948832068383,
"p_shipped": 0.4883412309190746,
"model_mu": 7.57270770707514,
"market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
"divergence": 0.025066087395319903,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.2707,
"contribution": 0.088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1826,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1629,
"contribution": 0.05294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.1537,
"contribution": -0.04996,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1248,
"contribution": 0.04058,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1052,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5655290286022806,
"p_shipped": 0.5085750339429697,
"model_mu": 8.869174708650775,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.04881951703415721,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.3333,
"contribution": 0.11472,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.2557,
"contribution": 0.088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1577,
"contribution": 0.05426,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1538,
"contribution": 0.05294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0994,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]