You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 9 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Shane Livensparger (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonXzavion Curry —/— · Chris Bassitt 15.2/9.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.0 vs 4.5 typical at Citi Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 21.5 · away 27.2
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +2.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 5).
The total line has moved -0.5 since the grade (anchor 9).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Baltimore Orioles7New York Mets1FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| BAL | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
B First-5-innings Over 5.0 · landed 7 · WON
no lean Over 9.0 runs · landed 8 · LOST