Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5824913878811687,
"p_shipped": 0.5237811398004089,
"model_mu": 5.241640849047315,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": 0.081199398217086,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2975,
"contribution": 0.13189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.2853,
"contribution": 0.12646,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2162,
"contribution": 0.09582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1589,
"contribution": 0.07042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0421,
"contribution": 0.01867,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5883632705496175,
"p_shipped": 0.524489444666071,
"model_mu": 6.037874203113081,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": 0.08707128088553473,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 46 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2728,
"contribution": 0.17149,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2304,
"contribution": 0.14481,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.1971,
"contribution": 0.12386,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1524,
"contribution": 0.09582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1176,
"contribution": -0.07391,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0297,
"contribution": 0.01867,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4955348647096018,
"p_shipped": 0.4839681100278111,
"model_mu": 8.5811008698761,
"market_p": 0.4769230769230769,
"divergence": 0.01861178778652489,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 0.9 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.3011,
"contribution": -0.10422,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2242,
"contribution": -0.07759,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1785,
"contribution": 0.06179,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1674,
"contribution": 0.05794,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1288,
"contribution": 0.04458,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5351025163877488,
"p_shipped": 0.5019198000733185,
"model_mu": 9.897697270946482,
"market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
"divergence": 0.04924133386846863,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2479,
"contribution": -0.07759,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.2178,
"contribution": 0.06816,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1914,
"contribution": 0.0599,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1851,
"contribution": 0.05794,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1578,
"contribution": 0.04939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
}
]