You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Edwin Jimenez (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDZebby Matthews 19.8/7.4 · Carlos Rodón 26.9/12.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 8.0 vs 8.5 typical at Target Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 19.9 · away 24.2
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 224p/3d (b2b 1) · away 132p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: A.J. Minter, Andrew Morris, Jeff Hoffman, John Schreiber
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDZebby Matthews 19.8/7.4 · Carlos Rodón 26.9/12.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Target Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 19.9 · away 24.2
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -1.5 since the grade (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
New York Yankees4Minnesota Twins5FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | R |
|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 2 · LOST
C Under 8.0 runs · landed 9 · LOST