Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49328769422108726,
"p_shipped": 0.5243496426307508,
"model_mu": 3.9631548047693093,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.026092150740153086,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.4673,
"contribution": -0.11022,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.2726,
"contribution": 0.06431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1421,
"contribution": -0.03351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.072,
"contribution": -0.01698,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.046,
"contribution": -0.01086,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5039874900776469,
"p_shipped": 0.5039139324812631,
"model_mu": 4.648070328448033,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.003987490077646871,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.4824,
"contribution": -0.09449,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3284,
"contribution": 0.06431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0867,
"contribution": -0.01698,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0554,
"contribution": -0.01086,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0471,
"contribution": 0.00922,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43655561222466427,
"p_shipped": 0.5055627794128353,
"model_mu": 7.026610241915678,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": -0.06730042890644122,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2978,
"contribution": -0.19531,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2292,
"contribution": 0.15035,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1758,
"contribution": -0.11529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1635,
"contribution": 0.1072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1337,
"contribution": -0.08771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4444969731204859,
"p_shipped": 0.4981970666502733,
"model_mu": 8.038207253372255,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": -0.059359068010619576,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.303,
"contribution": -0.19531,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2332,
"contribution": 0.15035,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1788,
"contribution": -0.11529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1663,
"contribution": 0.1072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1187,
"contribution": -0.0765,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
}
]
}
]