You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Under 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 3 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire John Tumpane (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDDean Kremer 23.0/8.3 · Will Warren 23.1/7.8
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Target Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 19.9 · away 24.7
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +3.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
New York Yankees8Minnesota Twins3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 1 · WON
no lean Under 8.0 runs · landed 11 · LOST