Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4381278709318368,
"p_shipped": 0.46111509805722267,
"model_mu": 3.750378825621115,
"market_p": 0.47780678851174935,
"divergence": -0.03967891757991254,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~12 mph net",
"share": 0.3613,
"contribution": -0.14418,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3227,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1892,
"contribution": 0.07553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0806,
"contribution": -0.03216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 0.8 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.0319,
"contribution": 0.01273,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0143,
"contribution": -0.00571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4613764406044822,
"p_shipped": 0.48519953457670867,
"model_mu": 4.463348489157293,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": -0.02957963174693895,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.3324,
"contribution": -0.09953,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 58\u00b0F",
"share": 0.3144,
"contribution": -0.09413,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2522,
"contribution": 0.07553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0585,
"contribution": -0.01751,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 0.8 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.0425,
"contribution": 0.01273,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45231245044290574,
"p_shipped": 0.4990895885135005,
"model_mu": 7.232250703194082,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.047687549557094255,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2456,
"contribution": 0.14724,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~12 mph net",
"share": 0.2341,
"contribution": -0.14031,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1979,
"contribution": -0.11865,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1788,
"contribution": 0.1072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1435,
"contribution": -0.08603,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46981490603966536,
"p_shipped": 0.5017313067361149,
"model_mu": 8.144876841674973,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.04689460552845803,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2587,
"contribution": 0.14724,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 58\u00b0F",
"share": 0.21,
"contribution": -0.11951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2085,
"contribution": -0.11865,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1883,
"contribution": 0.1072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1345,
"contribution": -0.07656,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
}
]