SPOTTER.
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You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Sun 9/13 · 1:10 PM CDT · American Family Field
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 6 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Doug Eddings (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE
K-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED
Robert Gasser 21.7/7.2 · Chase Burns 29.2/8.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICED
tonight's line 4.5 vs 4 typical at American Family Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED
home 21.8 · away 26.1
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -6.2% (n=446) vs 8.8% (n=358) in the favorable branch.
Conditions have changed since the grade (wind component +12→+8 mph) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved -0.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
CIN
4
BOT 9 · 3 OUT
B S OUT
updated 2026-09-13T20:45:55Z ·
MIL
3
AT BAT
Christian Yelich
season line pending
PITCHING
Emilio Pagán
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
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MIL0200001003
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Cincinnati Reds4Milwaukee Brewers3FINAL
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HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 2 · WON
A Under 8.0 runs · landed 7 · WON
TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS
A
A cards like this have won 54% under · market 50% · stake 1u
FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5
C
C cards like this have won 51% under · market 53%