Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Sun 9/13 · 1:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% under · market 50% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 20-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel31%

The away team allowing 6.9 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under26%

Day gameagainst the under16%

Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most16%

Backup catcher starting11%

Market: Under 8.0 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.1 runs · divergence 20 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 -123 → closed -123 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Low-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.44881655476803867,
  "model_mu": 3.511586804447624,
  "market_p": 0.4651162790697674,
  "divergence": -0.044976773047854246,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.3641,
    "contribution": -0.14202,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 28.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2136,
    "contribution": -0.08333,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1544,
    "contribution": -0.06022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1381,
    "contribution": 0.05389,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1298,
    "contribution": -0.05064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.45352804009024456,
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  "market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
  "divergence": -0.06420279823565117,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.3297,
    "contribution": -0.14202,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.2365,
    "contribution": -0.10186,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 28.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1935,
    "contribution": -0.08333,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1227,
    "contribution": 0.05285,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1176,
    "contribution": -0.05064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5104940217139479,
  "model_mu": 6.045058270920322,
  "market_p": 0.4922279792746114,
  "divergence": -0.19335447908376402,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3354,
    "contribution": -0.30521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2822,
    "contribution": -0.25687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1722,
    "contribution": -0.15672,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1232,
    "contribution": -0.11212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 44 pitches last start",
    "share": 0.087,
    "contribution": -0.07917,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.29788531370437504,
  "p_shipped": 0.5071433935098596,
  "model_mu": 7.135750342687658,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": -0.19953736670799616,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3074,
    "contribution": -0.30521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2588,
    "contribution": -0.25687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1611,
    "contribution": 0.15993,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1579,
    "contribution": -0.15672,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1148,
    "contribution": -0.11399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]