New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

Tue 9/8 · 5:40 PM CDT · loanDepot park

THE EDGE

B-grade Under 8 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 10 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Mike Estabrook (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

K-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Sandy Alcantara 17.6/6.3 · Sean Manaea 20.8/6.5

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 8.0 vs 8 typical at loanDepot park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 22.6 · away 22.6

CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

K-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Sandy Alcantara 17.6/6.3 · Sean Manaea 20.8/6.5

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at loanDepot park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 22.6 · away 22.6

F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -6.2% (n=446) vs 8.8% (n=358) in the favorable branch.

The f5_total line has moved +3.5 since the grade (anchor 4).

The total line has moved +4.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 8).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction. Getting in before the line moves is the point.

NYM

—

· — OUT

B S OUT

updated — ·

MIA

—

AT BAT

—

season line pending

PITCHING

—

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).

New York Mets7Miami Marlins5FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	2	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	5

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

no lean First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 7 · WON

B Under 8.0 runs · landed 12 · LOST

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 49% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 53% over · market 53%