Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5587674485411557,
"p_shipped": 0.5198561383027355,
"model_mu": 3.945850626666715,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": 0.025262293901980426,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.51,
"contribution": 0.11795,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1885,
"contribution": 0.0436,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.124,
"contribution": -0.02868,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1214,
"contribution": 0.02809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0561,
"contribution": 0.01298,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5649199823491594,
"p_shipped": 0.5255245289936143,
"model_mu": 4.886143286103697,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": 0.03141482770998416,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.6376,
"contribution": 0.16571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1103,
"contribution": -0.02868,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1095,
"contribution": 0.02845,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1081,
"contribution": 0.02809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.0345,
"contribution": -0.00897,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4013844502753531,
"p_shipped": 0.4890420119193158,
"model_mu": 6.671713569993237,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": -0.09475950859354154,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.5533,
"contribution": -0.22755,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1338,
"contribution": -0.05503,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.122,
"contribution": -0.05019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.067,
"contribution": -0.02754,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter works deep into games",
"share": 0.0531,
"contribution": -0.02184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0375,
"contribution": -0.01541,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0334,
"contribution": -0.01372,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4184695823668844,
"p_shipped": 0.4954026023918644,
"model_mu": 8.071433904755505,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": -0.09566923511383535,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.503,
"contribution": -0.22755,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.2185,
"contribution": -0.09885,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1193,
"contribution": 0.05397,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1109,
"contribution": -0.05019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter works deep into games",
"share": 0.0483,
"contribution": -0.02184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
}
]