You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 7.5 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 7 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Chad Whitson (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonReid Detmers 28.4/6.7 · Kade Anderson 18.4/9.2
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 7.5 vs 8.5 typical at Angel Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 25.3 · away 23.8
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 174p/3d (b2b 0) · away 165p/3d (b2b 0) · recent arms: Andrés Muñoz, Ben Joyce, Blake Weiman, Carlos Vargas
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonReid Detmers 28.4/6.7 · Kade Anderson 18.4/9.2
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Angel Stadium this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 25.3 · away 23.8
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +3.5 since the grade (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +3 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Seattle Mariners4Los Angeles Angels6FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| LAA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.0 · landed 9 · LOST
C Under 7.5 runs · landed 10 · LOST