Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3909174362919849,
"p_shipped": 0.45469897044538987,
"model_mu": 3.7711573450634877,
"market_p": 0.4739583333333334,
"divergence": -0.08304089704134854,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3128,
"contribution": -0.24119,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.167,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1669,
"contribution": -0.1287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.1663,
"contribution": 0.12826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1475,
"contribution": -0.11378,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0395,
"contribution": -0.03045,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4504084100533765,
"p_shipped": 0.47669538365614,
"model_mu": 4.625004346993529,
"market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
"divergence": -0.028973033245592583,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4134,
"contribution": -0.24119,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
"share": 0.2104,
"contribution": 0.12278,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.195,
"contribution": -0.11378,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1402,
"contribution": -0.08181,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0409,
"contribution": 0.02389,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4164413028611805,
"p_shipped": 0.49347943949591533,
"model_mu": 6.905447707338136,
"market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
"divergence": -0.07308749295033795,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4155,
"contribution": -0.31287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2085,
"contribution": -0.15698,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1337,
"contribution": 0.10069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.101,
"contribution": 0.07603,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0788,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0626,
"contribution": -0.04713,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43530165795126063,
"p_shipped": 0.4939264726657141,
"model_mu": 7.749393870299232,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": -0.06727566163636833,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4723,
"contribution": -0.31287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1897,
"contribution": -0.12568,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.152,
"contribution": 0.10069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1148,
"contribution": 0.07603,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0712,
"contribution": -0.04713,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
}
]