You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Under 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 1 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Lance Barrett (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDPeter Lambert 22.9/9.1 · Tyler Mahle 22.3/7.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Daikin Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.6 · away 22.5
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved -0.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +0.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Atlanta Braves6Houston Astros2FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.0 · landed 3 · WON
no lean Over 8.0 runs · landed 8 · PUSH