SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:10 PM CDT

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros

Sat 9/19 · 7:10 PM CDT · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 46% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% under · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 0-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team27%
The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 daysagainst the over20%
Behind the plate leans over — mostly the home team14%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over7%
Retractable roof — state not known at grade time4%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptionsagainst the over28%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it +119 · model expects ~3.8 runs · divergence 0 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
none detected for this game
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. No weather read yet. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4824926092875157,
  "p_shipped": 0.45766265752824564,
  "model_mu": 3.8235123992476456,
  "market_p": 0.4792746113989638,
  "divergence": 0.003217997888551871,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2766,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2737,
    "contribution": 0.12741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.197,
    "contribution": -0.09172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1381,
    "contribution": 0.06427,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0735,
    "contribution": -0.0342,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.0411,
    "contribution": 0.01915,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.502982826104869,
  "p_shipped": 0.5092588032414477,
  "model_mu": 7.578832774212136,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": -0.011229060200040553,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3016,
    "contribution": 0.14808,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2716,
    "contribution": 0.13336,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1527,
    "contribution": -0.07499,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.138,
    "contribution": -0.06775,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.136,
    "contribution": -0.06678,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]