SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

Wed 9/16 · 7:10 PM CDT · Daikin Park
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 1 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Rob Drake (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED
Hunter Brown 25.9/11.9 · Michael Wacha 20.0/6.5
MARKET ANCHORPRICED
tonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Daikin Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED
home 23.4 · away 20.2
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved -1 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved -1.5 since the grade (anchor 8).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
KC
2
TOP 9 · 3 OUT
B S OUT
updated 2026-09-16T02:33:32Z ·
HOU
4
AT BAT
Tyler Tolbert
season line pending
PITCHING
Josh Hader
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
123456789R
KC0000110002
HOU101020004
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Kansas City Royals2Houston Astros4FINAL
123456789R
KC0000110002
HOU101020004
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 5 · WON
no lean Under 8.0 runs · landed 6 · WON
TOTAL
no lean
model 51% under · market 50%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 46% over · market 47%