Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.500540490996076,
"p_shipped": 0.5143142707300332,
"model_mu": 3.6226170807660516,
"market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
"divergence": -0.025232704880212675,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.4003,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3254,
"contribution": 0.1047,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 484 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1928,
"contribution": -0.06204,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0599,
"contribution": 0.01927,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0142,
"contribution": -0.00456,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "No lineup handedness for both teams \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0075,
"contribution": 0.0024,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4815856412999996,
"p_shipped": 0.4643867277831479,
"model_mu": 4.848709632865582,
"market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
"divergence": 0.012513476351545982,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.3208,
"contribution": 0.1047,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2715,
"contribution": -0.0886,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 484 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1901,
"contribution": -0.06204,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1064,
"contribution": 0.03475,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team lacks the lefty-righty edge in the lineup",
"share": 0.0973,
"contribution": -0.03175,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.014,
"contribution": -0.00456,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45413576282463725,
"p_shipped": 0.48855251268747246,
"model_mu": 7.10419855012498,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": -0.030400319649589558,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.258,
"contribution": -0.13187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1308,
"contribution": -0.06688,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1247,
"contribution": 0.06375,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1161,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0959,
"contribution": 0.04903,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for both teams",
"share": 0.0744,
"contribution": -0.03803,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "No lineup handedness for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0707,
"contribution": 0.03614,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0669,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.0624,
"contribution": -0.0319,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47394341205425194,
"p_shipped": 0.49481318967006654,
"model_mu": 8.329113768066543,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.026056587945748055,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3577,
"contribution": -0.13187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1729,
"contribution": 0.06375,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1404,
"contribution": -0.05175,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.133,
"contribution": 0.04903,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for both teams",
"share": 0.1032,
"contribution": -0.03803,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0928,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]